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Mortgage Rate Projections

Mortgage Rate Projections for 2025

Key factors that effect rates:

1. Inflation: If inflation cools, rates could dip a bit more. On the flip side, if inflation rises or remains stubbornly high, rates may stay elevated longer.

2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate also plays a significant role in upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). And while the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their actions do reflect what’s happening in the greater economy, which can have an impact.

3. Government Policies: With the next administration set to take office in January, fiscal and monetary policies could also affect how financial markets respond and where rates go from here.

 

 

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Essex County Housing Report 11/15/2024

Essex County Housing Report 11/15/2024

 

30 Year Mortgage Rates are 7.05% per Mortgage News Daily.


Housing Inventory is still very low: 
Single Family 1.8 months, Condos 1.7 months. A balanced

market is 6 months of inventory.

Inflation running hotter than expected which impacts Future Federal Reserve Rate Cuts:

October 2024 Consumer Price Index Report (CPI), 11-13-2024:
12 month CPI inflation rose 2.6% and Core Inflation (all items less food and energy) rose 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%. October 2024 Monthly CPI rose +0.2% and Monthly Core Inflation rose +0.3%.

Single Family & Condo Median Prices and Units Sold Rose Month over Month and Year over Year as Inventory remained very low.

 

 

Essex County Housing Report 10/15/2024

Essex County Housing Report 10/15/2024

Mortgage Rates have risen to 6.62% today per Mortgage News Daily, up from 6.11% on 9/11/2024 when investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut its Federal Funds rate by 0.5%, which they did.

September 2024 Inflation running hotter than expected which impacts Future Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
12 month CPI inflation rose 2.4% and Core Inflation (all items less food and energy) rose 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%.
September 2024 Monthly CPI rose 0.2% and Monthly Core Inflation rose 0.3%.

Single Family & Condo Median Prices and Units Sold fell Month over Month
From August 2024 to September, 2024:
Single Family: Median Prices fell -6.7% and sold units fell -24.5%.
Condo:            Median Prices fell -7.9% and sold units fell -20.3%.

 

 

Essex County Housing Report 9/11/2024

Essex County Housing Report 9/11/2024  

Mortgage Rates Fell to 6.11% today on expectation that Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Inflation still running hot. The August CPI Report, (Consumer Price Index),  9-11-2023: 12 month inflation for August rose 2.5% which was down from 2.9% for the 12 months ending July 2024. 12 month Core Inflation (all items less food and energy) was up 3.2%, the same as July. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%. August Monthly CPI rose 0.2% which was the same as the prior month. August Monthly Core Inflation rose 0.3% which was higher than 0.2% in July.

August Median Sold Prices rose for Single Families and Condos both year over year and month over month. Multi-Family prices rose year over year but declined month over month.

Low inventories (1.4 Months for Single-Families and 1.5 Months for Condos) continue to support housing prices with not much relief in sight as 82% of 30 year mortgags outstanding are below 5%.

Essex County Housing Report 8/19/2024

Essex County Housing Report 8/19/2024  

Mortgage Rates Fell Below 7% on July 10, 2024 and are Now 6.56% on Improving CPI Reports (Consumer Price Index) 

12 month Inflation still running too hot. July CPI was 2.9% and Core Inflation was 3.2%, above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

However, the CPI Trend is down causing investors to push rates down in anticipation of a Federal Reserve Rate Cut in September, definitely a boost for Invenstment Properties. 

Low inventories (1.7 Months for Single-Families and 1.4 Months for Condos) continue to support housing prices with not much relief in sight as 82% of 30 year mortgags outstanding are below 5%.

Essex County Housing Report 7/19/2024

Essex County Housing Report 7/19/2024

Both Single-Family and Condo Unit Sales and Active Listings  rose from May through June.
Single-Family prices also rose 5.6% from May, but condo prices fell 4.2%.  
2-4 Unit Multi-Familiy / Investment properties continue to strugle with high interest rates as investors seek high capitalizaton rates (7.5% - 9%)

Mortgage Rates dropped to 6.89% today (Mortgage News Daily) on improving CPI Report (Consumer Price Index).  Althought 12 month CPI and Core Inflatioin were 3% and 3.3% respectively, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, monthly CPI fell -0.1% and Core Inflatioin rose only +0.1%, stimulating a bond market rally.  

Low inventories (1.7 Months for Single-Families and 1.4 Months for Condos) continue to support housing prices with not much relief in sight as 82% of 30 year mortgags outstanding are below 5%.

 

Essex County May Housing Report 6/27/2024

Essex County May Housing Report 6/27/2024

May Spring Market Sales continued at a strong pace, Inflation improved sligtly in May and Mortgage Rates remain above 7%

May single-family and condo sales rose 56.0% and 16.5% respectively from April 2024 and also rose 19.7% and 6.5% respectively from a year ago.  Inflation is still running too hot.  12 month CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.3% in May and Core Inflation rose 3.4%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The good news was the monthly CPI inflation rose 0% and Core Inflation rose +0.2% in May. 
30 year fixed rate mortgage is now 7.06% per Mortgage News Daily.

Record low inventories continue to support housing prices with not much relief insight

Interest rates remain above 7% discouraging potential sellers with existing low mortgage rates to sell their homes and move.

 

Essex County April Housing Report 5/20/2024

Essex County April Housing Report 5/20/2024

Spring Market sales continued at a strong pace, Inflation improved slightly in April and Mortgage Rates remain above 7%.

April single-family and condo sales rose 19.6% and 16.6% respectively from March 2024 and also rose 1.2% and 33.1% respectively from a year ago.  Inflation is still running too hot.  12 month CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.4% in April and Core Inflation rose 3.6%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The good news was the monthly inflation rate fell from 0.4% to 0.3% for both the CPI and Core Inflation.  

30 year fixed rate mortgages now 7.10%, Mortgage News Daily.

Record low inventories continue to support housing prices with not much relief insight

Interest rates remain above 7% discouraging potential sellers with existing low mortgage rates to sell their homes and move.

Essex County March Housing Report 4/13/2024

Essex County March Housing Report 4/13/2024

Spring Market is off to a good start with a strong rebound from Feb 2024!

Inflation rose for the third consecutive month. Mortgage rates above 7%. It is unlikely the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the near term.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI Core Inflation (CPI less food and energy) Indexes both rose in March by 0.4%.  Increase was mostly caused by a 0.4% increase in Shelter (housing costs) and a 1.1% increase in Energy costs.
Annual CPI rose 3.5% and Core Inflation rose 3.8%, almost twice the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% making interest rate cuts unlikely.

30 year fixed rate mortgages now 7.30%, Mortgage News Daily.

Record low inventories continue to support housing prices with not much relief insight

Interest rates remain above 7% discouraging potential sellers with existing low mortgage rates to sell their homes and move.