Essex County December Housing Report 12/14/2022

Inflation is slowing, but is way above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.  
November CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell to 7.1% from 7.7% in October.
November PPI (Producer Price Index) fell to 7.4% from 8.1% in October. PPI measures wholesale Prices
To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and sell off their Balance Sheet Assets to tighten credit (Quantitive Tightening).  
Federal Funds Rate increased +0.5% to 4.25% - 4.5% 
Mortgage Rates are trending down; Conforming 30 Year Fixed now 6.33%.

Bottom Line:
Housing Listing and Sales activity continues to moderate as the Fed fights inflation.
Year over Year price increases are slowing, +6.3%, Units Sales fell -26%, Active Listings fell -16%.  Months of Inventory rose +21% as Unit Sales fell more the Active Listings.  

Month Over Month, November 2022 vs October 2022

• Median Sold Prices:
  Single Families +4.4%;  Condos -1.1%;  Multi-Families  -1.5%
• Unit Sales:
  Single Families -4.2%, Condos +29.3%, Multi-Families +1.9%
• Active Listings:
  Single Families -14.2%, Condos -6.3%, Multi-Families -10.6% 
• Current Months of Inventory:
  Single Families 1.6, Condos 1.4, Multi-Families 2.4

Year Over Year, November 2022 vs November 2021

• Median Sold Prices: 
  Single Families +6.6%; Condos +6.0%;  Multi-Families +2.2% 
• Unit Sales:
  Single Families -23.1% , Condos -34.0%, Multi-Families -44.8%.
• Active Listings:
  Single Families -4.3%; Condos -23.9%; Multi-Families -16.0% 
• Change in Months of Inventory:
  Single Families +23.1%, Condos  16.7%, Multi-Families +50.0%.
  
  Terry Sullivan

• To view data for every Essex County town, go to:  http://www.sullivanteam.com/Properties/Reports/Public/Charts.php
  
  
• To Download the full housing report go to:  http://sullivanteam.com/pages/EssexCountyHousingReports
  
  
  

Essex County September Housing Report 10/18/2022 

The Federal Reserve’s war on inflation is dampening real estate sales as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and reduce its purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities to fight inflation. After the last CPI Report which was a surprisingly high 8.2% inflation rate on 9/13/2022, the 30 year mortgage rate rose to 7.16% and the 10 year Treasury Notes rose to 4% on 9/14/2022.

• To view data for every Essex County town, go to:  http://www.sullivanteam.com/Properties/Reports/Public/Charts.php
  
  
• To Download the full housing report go to:  http://sullivanteam.com/pages/EssexCountyHousingReports
  

Should I Sell My House This Year?

There’s no denying the housing market is undergoing a shift this season as buyer demand slows and the number of homes for sale grows. But that shift actually gives you some unique benefits when you sell. Here’s a look at the key opportunities you have if you list your house this fall.

Opportunity #1: You Have More Options for Your Move

One of the biggest stories today is the growing supply of homes for sale. Housing inventoryhas been increasing since the start of the year, primarily because higher mortgage rates helped cool off the peak frenzy of buyer demand. But what you may not realize is, that actually could benefit you.

If you’re selling your house to make a move, it means you’ll have more options for your own home search. That gives you an even better chance to find a home that checks all of your boxes. So, if you’ve put off selling because you were worried about being able to find somewhere to go, know your options have improved.

Opportunity #2: The Number of Homes on the Market Is Still Low

Just remember, while data shows the number of homes for sale has increased this year, housing supply is still firmly in sellers’ market territory. To be in a balanced market where there are enough homes available to meet the pace of buyer demand, there would need to be a six months’ supply of homes. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), in July, there was only a 3.3 months’ supply.

While you’ll have more options for your own home search, inventory is still low, and that means your home will still be in demand if you price it right. That’s why the most recent datafrom NAR also shows the average home sold in July still saw multiple offers and sold in as little as 14 days.

Opportunity #3: Your Equity Has Grown by Record Amounts

The home price appreciation the market saw over the past few years has likely given your equity (and your net worth) a considerable boost. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:

“Home owners trying to decide if now is the time to list their home for sale are still in a good position in many markets across the country as a decade of rising home prices gives them a substantial equity cushion . . .” 

If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about how rising prices will impact your next home search, rest assured your equity can help. It may be just what you need to cover a large portion (if not all) of the down payment on your next home.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house this season, let’s connect so you have the expert insights you need to make the best possible move today.

 Essex County September Housing Report 9/17/2022 

Sellers are adjusting to rising mortgage rates and buyer resistance by lowering their prices.  Current Unit sales rose over 11% from July to August as median sold prices for August 2022 fell -5.5% for Singles and -0.5% for Condos from July 2022.  Inventory remains extremely low with only 1.2 months for Singles, and 1.3 months for Condos.  

6 months of inventory is a balanced market. 

Year over year, August median home sale prices rose 5.0% for Singles and 6.4% for Condos while Unit Sales fell 10.1% for Singles and 17.6% for Condos. 

30 year conforming mortgage rates today were 6.35%, a 14 year high.

Bottom line, in spite of an extremely low 1.2 months of inventory, August 2022 median sold prices fell 5.5% for Singles and 0.5% for Condos from July 2022 to offset rapidly rising mortgage rates and stimulate Buyer interest.  August Home Sales rose 11% from July 2022.  

• To view data for every Essex County town, go to:  http://www.sullivanteam.com/Properties/Reports/Public/Charts.php
  
  
• To Download the full housing report go to:  http://sullivanteam.com/pages/EssexCountyHousingReports
  
  
  
  

10 Pro Tips for a Smooth Home Move

The process of buying a new home can be both exhilarating and exhausting. But the journey doesn’t stop when you close on your property. On the contrary, you still have quite a bit to do before you can begin the process of settling into your new place. 

Fortunately, you don’t have to do everything in a day. You don’t have to do it all alone, either. When you work with us to sell or purchase a home, you’ll have an ally by your side long after your transaction has closed. We’ll continue to be a resource, offering advice and referrals whenever you need them on packing, hiring movers and contractors, and acclimating to your new home and neighborhood. 

When it comes to a life event as stressful as moving, it pays to have a professional by your side. Here are some of our favorite pro tips to share with clients as they prepare for an upcoming move. 

1. Watch out for moving scams.

Maybe you receive a flyer for a moving company in the mail. Perhaps you find a mover online. Either way, never assume that you’re getting accurate information. According to the Better Business Bureau, moving-related fraud is on the rise. In 2021 alone, individuals and families reported more than $730,000 lost to moving scams, an increase of 216% over the previous year.¹ 

How can you tell if a moving deal is too good to be true? Trust your instincts. If the price appears too low or you can’t pin down the mover’s physical business address, try someone else. The same goes for any moving company representative who dodges questions. Reputable movers should offer transparent pricing, conduct in-home estimates, and provide referrals and copies of their insurance documents upon request.² For help finding trustworthy movers, reach out. We’d be happy to share our recommendations.  

2. Insure your belongings.

Your moving company promises to take care of your custom piano or your antique furniture. But don’t just take their word for it. Ask to see how much insurance they carry and talk about how the claims process works. That way, you’ll know what is (and isn’t) covered in case of loss or damage.

Of course, some items are priceless because they’re irreplaceable. You might want to move your more sensitive valuables (jewelry, documents, family heirlooms, etc.) in your own vehicle just to be safe. For added peace of mind, call your rental or home insurance provider if you’re moving anything yourself. You might already be protected or be able to purchase extra insurance to cover your move. If those options are unavailable, you could opt for moving insurance from a third-party carrier.³

3. Start packing when you start looking for a new home.

As soon as your house hunting begins in earnest, think about packing away things you won’t need for the next few months. These could include seasonal or holiday decor, clothing, and books. Tackling just one or two boxes a day will give you a head start.

If you're going to put your current home on the market, you'll want to declutter anyway. Decluttering will make your home seem larger, and depersonalizing helps buyers envision their own items in the space. Consider selling, donating, or throwing out possessions you no longer need. The things you want to keep can be placed in storage until you officially start moving to a new place.

4. Pack to make unpacking easier.

Have you ever opened a packed box only to find that it’s filled with an assortment of items that don’t belong together? This isn’t efficient and will only make unpacking harder. A better way to pack is to bundle items from a single room in a labeled box. Labels can let movers know (and remind you) where to place each box, whether it’s fragile, and which side needs to be up. Some people like to assign colors to each room in their new home to make distributing color-coded boxes a breeze. 

Feel free to unleash your inner organizer with this project. For example, you could create a spreadsheet and assign each box a number. As boxes are packed, simply fill in the spreadsheet with a list of contents. Anyone with access to the spreadsheet can log in and quickly find the desired item.

5. Think outside the box when transporting clothes.

Who wants to worry about boxing up clothes? If you plan on hiring professional movers, ask if you can leave clothing in your dressers. In many cases, they will use plastic to wrap the dresser so the drawers don’t fall out during transport. If keeping your clothes in your furniture makes it too heavy, the movers might be able to wrap and move drawers by themselves.

Another easy transport trick involves turning clean garbage bags into garment bags. Poke a hole in the bottom of a garbage bag, turn the bag upside down, slide it over five to seven garments on hangers, and lay the items flat in the back seat or trunk of your vehicle. The bags will help prevent wrinkling, and your clothes will be ready to hang up when you get to your new home.

6. Document prior to disassembling appliances and furnishings.

Few things are as confusing as looking at a plastic baggie filled with nuts, bolts, and screws from your disassembled dining room table or sorting through a box of electrical wires and cords to see which ones fit your TV. 

The best workaround to easier reassembly is to document the disassembly process. Take photos and videos or thorough notes as you go. Whether it’s your headboard or treadmill, be very precise. And just a tip: Construct your beds first when you get to your new home. After a long moving day, the very last thing you want is to be assembling beds into the wee hours of the morning. 

7. Prioritize unpacking kids’ rooms.

Children can become very stressed by a big move. To ease their transition, consider prioritizing unpacking their rooms as their “safe zones.”⁴ You aren’t obligated to unpack everything, certainly. However, set up your children’s rooms to be functional. That way, your kids can hang out in a private oasis away from the chaos while you’re running around and moving everything else.

Depending upon how old your youngsters are, you might want to give them decorating leeway, too. Even if it’s just letting them choose where furniture goes, it gives them a sense of buy-in. This can help ease the blues of leaving a former home they loved.

8. Be a thoughtful pet parent.

Many types of pets can’t handle the commotion of moving day. Knowing this, be considerate and seek ways to give your pets breaks from the action. You might ask a friend to pet sit your pooch or keep your kitty in a quieter room, like a guest bathroom.

Be sure to check in on your pet frequently. Pets like to know that you’re around. Give them treats, food, and water throughout the day. When it’s time to transport your pet, do it calmly. At your new property, give your pet access to just a room or two at first. Pets typically prefer to acclimate themselves slowly to unfamiliar environments.⁵

9. Plan for your move like you’re planning for an exciting vacation.

When you plan vacations, you probably look up local restaurants, shops, and recreational areas. Who says you can’t do the same thing when moving? Create a list of all the places you want to go and things you want to do around your newly purchased home. Having a to-explore list keeps everyone’s spirits high and gives you starting points to settle into the neighborhood. 

And don’t feel that you have to cook that first night. Once the moving trucks are gone, you can always pop over to a local eatery or order DoorDash for major convenience. The first meal in your new home should be a happy, welcoming treat. And if you’re relocating to our neck of the woods, we would love to introduce you to all the hot spots in town and recommend our local favorites.

10. Pack an “Open Me First!” box.

You won’t be able to unpack all your boxes in one day, but you shouldn’t go without your sheets, pillows, or toothbrush. Designate some boxes with “Open Me First!” labels. (Pro tip: Keep a tool kit front and center for all that reassembling.) 

Along these lines, use luggage and duffel bags to transport everyone’s personal must-have items and enough clothing for a couple of days. That way, you won’t have to rummage through everything in the middle of your move looking for sneakers or snacks.

When packing your “Open Me First!” boxes, think about which items you’ll need in those first 24 hours. For example, toilet paper and hand soap are musts. A box cutter will make unpacking a lot easier, and paper towels and trash bags are sure to come in handy. Reach out for a complete, printable list of “Open Me First!” box essentials to keep on hand for your next move!

LET’S GET MOVING

Getting the phone call from your real estate agent that your bid was accepted is a thrilling moment. Make sure you keep the positivity flowing during the following weeks by mapping out a streamlined, efficient move. Feel free to get in touch with us today to help make your big move your best move.

Sources:

1. Better Business Bureau - https://www.bbb.org/article/scams/24198-bbb-scam-alert-avoid-moving-scams-this-national-moving-mont
2. Move.org - 
   https://www.move.org/how-to-tell-moving-company-scam/
3. Forbes - 
   https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/moving-insurance/
4. New York Times - 
   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/parenting/moving-tips-kids.html
5. ASPCA - 
   https://www.aspca.org/pet-care/general-pet-care/moving-your-pet

• To view data for every Essex County town, go to:  http://www.sullivanteam.com/Properties/Reports/Public/Charts.php
  
  
• To Download the full housing report go to:  http://sullivanteam.com/pages/EssexCountyHousingReports
  
  
  
  

 Essex County July Housing Report 7/13/2022 

Year Over Year, June 2022 vs June 2021, Home Prices (Singles + Condos) continued to rise, but at a more modest pace.  Both the number of Unit Sales and Active Listings declined. 

Rising month over month active listings were offset by rising month over month unit sales and the Current Months of Inventory remains very low, 1 month, for both singles and condos.   

30 year mortgage rates surged to 6.28% within the past three week but have settled back to 5.71%.  The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% - 1% shortly as the Federal Reserve fights inflation. This will dampen housing demand and slow the rate of price increases.

Bottom line, the Sellers’ Market remains intact as inventory remains at an extremely low level.  However, home price increases are slowing down as rising mortgage rates take effect.  

Month Over Month, May 2022 vs April 2022, 

• Median Sold Prices:
  Single Families +3.4%;  Condos +1.1%;  Multi-Families  -10.7%
• Unit Sales:
  Single Families +34.8%, Condos +0.4%, Multi-Families +26.7%
• Active Listings:
  Single Families +19.3%, Condos +10.4%, Multi-Families +8.4% 
• Current Months of Inventory:
  Single Families 1.0, Condos 1.0, Multi-Families 2.0.

Year Over Year, May 2022 vs May 2021

• Median Sold Prices: 
  Single Families +5.4%; Condos +12.8%;  Multi-Families +6.2% 
• Unit Sales:
  Single Families -7.2% , Condos -21.8%, Multi-Families -32.1%.
• Active Listings:
  Single Families -6.0%; Condos -32.6%; Multi-Families -16.2% 
• Months of Inventory:
  Single Families -0.0%, Condos -9.1%, Multi-Families 25.0%.

• To view data for every Essex County town, go to:  http://www.sullivanteam.com/Properties/Reports/Public/Charts.php
  
  
• To Download the full housing report go to:  http://sullivanteam.com/pages/EssexCountyHousingReports

5 Ways to Write a Winning Offer in Today’s Real Estate Market

Our nation is in the midst of a serious housing crunch. Last year, a lack of inventory and soaring prices left many would-be homebuyers feeling pinched. But now, with interest rates climbing, many of them are also feeling desperate to lock in a mortgage—which has only added fuel to the fire.¹

Fortunately, if you’re a buyer struggling to find a home, we have some good news. While it’s true that higher mortgage rates can decrease your purchasing budget, there are additional ways to compete in a hot market.

Yes, a high offer price gets attention. But most sellers consider a variety of factors when evaluating an offer. With that in mind, here are five tactics you can utilize to sweeten your proposal and outshine your competition.

We can help you weigh the risks and benefits of each tactic and craft a compelling offer designed to get you your dream home—without giving away the farm.

1.   Demonstrate Solid Financing

The reality is, no one gets paid if a home sale falls through. That’s why sellers (and their listing agents) favor offers with a high probability of closing. 

Sellers particularly love all-cash offers because there’s no chance of financing issues cropping up at the last moment. But don’t despair if you can’t pay cash for your home. According to the National Association of Realtors, only about 1 in 4 home purchases are all-cash deals, which means the vast majority are financed with a mortgage.²

If sellers are assured that financing will come through, buying with a mortgage doesn’t have to be a big disadvantage. The most important step you can take as a buyer is to get preapproved before you start looking for homes. A preapproval letter shows sellers that you are serious about buying and that you will be able to make good on your offer. 

It’s also important to consider the reputation of your lender. While sellers may not know or care about a lender’s reputation, their agents often do. Some lenders are much easier to work with than others, especially if you are pursuing certain types of mortgages like FHA or VA loans.³ If so, you’ll want a lender who specializes in these types of mortgages. If you’re unsure who to choose, we are happy to refer you to reputable lenders known for their ease of doing business. 

2.   Put Down a Sizeable Deposit

Buyers can show sellers that they’re serious about their offer and have “skin in the game” by putting down a large earnest money deposit. 

Earnest money is a deposit held in escrow by a title company or the seller’s broker or lawyer.  If the purchase goes through, it is applied to the down payment and closing costs—if the sale falls through, the buyer may lose some or all of that deposit.

While an earnest money deposit is typically around 1-2% of the sale price, offering a higher deposit can help demonstrate to the buyer that you are serious about the property.⁴ However, this strategy can also be risky. We can help you determine an appropriate deposit to offer based on your specific circumstances.

3.   Ask for Few (or No) Contingencies

Most real estate offers include contingencies, which are clauses that allow one or both parties to back out of the agreement if certain conditions are not met. These contingencies appear in the purchase agreement and must be accepted by both the buyer and seller to be legally binding.⁵

Common contingencies include:

• Financing: A financing contingency gives the buyer a window of time in which to secure a mortgage. If they are unable to do so, they can withdraw from the purchase and the seller can move on to other buyers.
• Inspection: An inspection contingency gives the buyer the opportunity to have the home professionally inspected for issues with the structure, wiring, plumbing, etc. Typically, the seller may choose whether or not to remediate those issues; if they do not, the buyer may withdraw from the contract.
• Appraisal: Most lenders will not offer a mortgage on a home that costs more than it's worth. An appraisal contingency gives the buyer an opportunity to get the home professionally assessed to ensure that its value is at or above the sales price. If an appraisal comes in low, the seller may be asked to renegotiate the contract.
• Sale of a prior home: Some buyers cannot afford to purchase a new home until they sell their previous one. If the buyer is unable to sell their current home within a specified window of time, this contingency enables them to withdraw from the contract without penalty.

Since contingencies reduce the likelihood that a sale will go through, they generally make an offer less desirable to the seller. The more contingencies that are included, the weaker the offer becomes. Therefore, buyers in a competitive market often volunteer to waive certain contingencies.

However, it’s very important to make this decision carefully and recognize the risks of doing so. For example, a buyer who chooses to waive a home inspection contingency may find out too late that the home requires extensive renovations, and a buyer who waives the appraisal may risk their mortgage falling through. If you back out of a home purchase without the protection of a contingency, you could lose your earnest money deposit.⁶ We can help you assess the risks and benefits involved.

4. Offer a Flexible Closing Date and/or Leaseback Option

When it comes to selling a house, money isn’t everything. People sell their homes for a wide variety of reasons, and flexible terms that work with their personal situations can sometimes make all the difference. For example, if a seller is in the process of planning a significant move, they may prefer a longer closing timeline that gives them time to find housing in their new location. 

Similarly, short-term leaseback options, in which the sale is completed but the seller retains the right to rent the home for a specified period of time, can be compelling.⁷ These arrangements enable the seller to use the money from the sale of their home to purchase their next house. A leaseback agreement also makes it possible for them to avoid moving twice when their next home is not yet ready to occupy.

Flexible closing dates and leaseback options can provide a powerful advantage for first-time homebuyers. If you have a month-to-month or easily transferable lease, for example, you may be able to offer a more flexible timeline than a buyer who is simultaneously selling their existing home.

Of course, the value of these terms depends on the seller’s situation. We can reach out to the listing agent to find out the seller’s preferred terms, and then collaborate with you to write a compelling offer that works for both parties. 

5. Work With a Skilled Buyer’s Agent

In this ultra-competitive real estate market, one of the greatest advantages you can give yourself is to work with a skilled and trustworthy real estate professional. We will make sure you fully understand the process and help you submit an appealing offer without taking on too much risk. 

Plus, we know how to write offers that are designed to win over both the seller and their listing agent. The truth is, listing agents play a huge role in helping sellers evaluate offers, and they want to work with skilled buyer’s agents who are professional, communicative, and courteous. 

Once your offer is accepted, we’ll also handle any further negotiations and coordinate all the paperwork and other details involved in your home purchase. The best part is, you’ll have a knowledgeable, licensed advocate on your side who is watching out for your best interests every step of the way.

Helping You Get to the Right Offer

In many cases, a competitive offer doesn’t need to be all-cash, contingency-free, or significantly above asking price. But if you’re serious about buying a home in today’s market, it’s important to consider what you can do to sweeten the deal.

If you’re a buyer, we can help you compete in today’s market without getting steamrolled. And if you’re a seller, we can help you evaluate offers by taking all the relevant factors into account. Contact us today to schedule a free consultation.

Sources:

1. National Association of Realtors -
   https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-dwindle-4-1-in-february
2. National Association of Realtors -
   https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fade-7-2-in-february
3. Forbes - 
   https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/housing-crisis-tips/
4. Realtor.com -
   https://www.realtor.com/advice/finance/earnest-money-deposit-mistakes-buyers-make/
5. Bankrate -
   https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/contingency-clause/
6. Home Buying Institute - 
   http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/mortgage/risks-of-waiving-a-contingency/
7. Realtor.com -
   https://www.realtor.com/advice/sell/what-is-a-rent-back-agreement

Higher Rates and Short Supply: The State of Real Estate in 2022

The last two years caught many of us off guard—and not just because of the pandemic. They also ushered in the hottest housing market on record, with home prices rising nationally by nearly 19% in 2021, driven primarily by low mortgage rates and a major supply shortage.¹

But while some had hoped 2022 would bring a return to normalcy, the U.S. real estate market continues to boom, despite rising interest rates and decreasing affordability.

So what’s driving this persistent demand? And is there an end in sight? 

Here are three factors impacting the real estate market right now. Find out how they could affect you if you’re a current homeowner or plan to buy or sell a home this year.

MORTGAGE RATES ARE RISING FASTER THAN EXPECTED

Over the past couple of years, homebuyers have faced intense competition for new homes—in part due to historically low mortgage rates that were a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep the economy afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, in response to a concerning level of inflation, the Fed is now reversing those efforts by raising the federal funds rate. And as a result, mortgage rates are rising, as well. Few experts predicted, though, that mortgage rates would go up as quickly as they have. 

In January 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association projected that rates would reach 4% by the end of this year.² By mid-April, however, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had already hit 5%, up from around 3% just one year prior.³ On a $400,000 mortgage, that 2% difference could translate into an additional $461 per monthly payment.

Since then, mortgage rates have continued on an upward trend. So what impact are these rising rates having on demand? While many buyers had hoped for a cooling effect, experts warn that may not be the case.

Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing market research firm Zanda, told Fortune magazine, "Rising mortgage rates are having a counterintuitive effect on the housing market. Home shoppers are actually sprung into action in an attempt to buy a home before mortgage rates rise any higher."⁴

Since inventory remains low, the resulting “race” has kept the homebuying market highly competitive–at least for now.

What does it mean for you?

While current 30-year fixed mortgage rates represent an increase over previous months, they remain well below the historical average of 8%.⁵ As inflation across the economy continues, the Fed is likely to raise rates further this year. Buyers should act fast to secure a good mortgage rate. We’d be happy to refer you to a lender who can help.

For sellers, speed is also of the essence. The pool of potential buyers may shrink as mortgages become more expensive. And if you plan to finance your next home, you’ll want to act quickly to secure a favorable rate for yourself. Contact us today to discuss your options.

HOME PRICES KEEP CLIMBING 

History shows that higher interest rates don’t necessarily translate to lower home prices. In fact, home prices rose 5% between 1980 and 1982, a period of significantly higher mortgage rates and inflation.⁵

Forecasters expect that home prices will continue to go up throughout 2022, though likely at a slower pace than the 18.8% increase of the last 12 months.⁴ Bank of America predicts that prices will be up approximately 10% by the end of this year, while Fannie Mae estimates 11.2%.^6,7

In addition to limited supply and a race to beat rising mortgage rates, home values are also climbing because of positive economic indicators, like low unemployment.⁸ Plus, rents are soaring–up 17% from a year ago–which is prompting more first-time homebuyers to enter the market.⁹ Add to that the continued popularity of remote work, and it’s easy to see why property prices continue to surge.

However, it’s not all bad news for prospective homebuyers. Economists expect that as mortgage rates rise, the rate of appreciation will continue to taper, though the effect may be gradual. 

“Eventually mortgage rates will slow down home prices,” according to Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University interviewed by Marketwatch.¹⁰ “We should not see rapid upticks in prices as mortgage rates rise.” Forecasters agree—Fannie Mae expects price increases to slow to 4.2% in 2023.⁷

What does it mean for you?

While the pace of appreciation is likely to decrease next year, home prices show no signs of going down. However, current labor shortages are leading to higher salaries and better job opportunities for many workers. You may find that your income growth outpaces home prices, making homeownership more affordable for you in the future.

For homeowners, the outlook’s even brighter. You could find yourself sitting on a nice pile of equity. Contact us for a free home value assessment to find out.

INVENTORY REMAINS EXTREMELY LO

As noted, one of the largest hurdles to homeownership is a lack of inventory. According to a February 2022 report by Realtor.com, there’s an expanding gap between household formation and home construction, which has resulted in a nationwide shortage of 5.8 million housing units.¹¹

The origins of this shortage date back to the 2008 housing crisis, during which crashing home values led contractors to stop building new properties—a trend that has not been fully reversed.¹²

That decline in home construction also resulted in a decrease in the number of home building professionals, a trend that was exacerbated by job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, many builders are limited by their ability to find qualified labor.

Another major challenge is a staggering increase in the cost of materials. Pandemic-related supply chain shortages have been a significant driver, with home building material costs rising on average 20% on a year-over-year basis. The price of framing lumber alone has tripled since August 2021.¹³

These trends add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a typical home. Factors like a lack of buildable land in many areas, restrictive zoning, and a shortage of developers are also contributing to the issue.¹⁴

Most homebuying experts agree that the lack of inventory is the primary factor driving rising housing prices and unprecedented competition for homes. With available housing units near four-decade lows, the end of the current housing boom is not yet in sight.¹⁵

What does it mean for you?

Prospective buyers should be prepared to compete for a home, since low inventory can lead to multiple offers. You may also need to expand your search parameters. If you’re ready to look, we’re ready to help.

For sellers, the picture is rosier. In this strong market, your home may be worth more than you realize. Contact us to find out how much your home could sell for in today’s market.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate trends can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We can help you assess your options and make the most of this unique real estate landscape.

Sources:

1. Marketwatch - https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/home-price-appreciation-will-normalize-what-5-economists-and-real-estate-pros-predict-will-happen-to-home-prices-in-2022-01646940841
2. Bankrate - 
   https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast
3. CNBC -
   https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/16/heres-how-much-the-same-mortgage-costs-now-compared-to-last-year.html
4. Fortune -
   https://fortune.com/2022/03/23/housing-market-interest-rate-economic-shock/
5. National Association of Realtors -
   https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-mortgage-rates-april-07-2022
6. Fortune -
   https://fortune.com/2022/03/16/home-prices-2022-2023-bank-of-america-forecast-mortgage-rates/
7. Fortune - 
   https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/what-home-prices-will-look-like-2023-fannie-mae/
8. Fortune - 
   https://fortune.com/2022/03/17/home-prices-drop-housing-markets-california-michigan-massachusetts-corelogic/
9. CNN - 
   https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/success/us-national-rent-february/index.html
10. MarketWatch -
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-increase-at-one-of-the-fastest-rates-on-record-but-higher-mortgage-rates-should-slow-future-growth-11648559497
11. Realtor.com -
    https://www.realtor.com/research/us-housing-supply-gap-expands/
12. NPR -
    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain
13. Investopedia -
    https://www.investopedia.com/housing-market-dips-in-early-march-2022-5222449
14. NPR -
    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain
15. Fortune - 
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/14/housing-market-key-metric-inventory-zillow-bad-for-buyers/