Mortgage Rate Projections

Mortgage Rate Projections for 2025

Key factors that effect rates:

1. Inflation: If inflation cools, rates could dip a bit more. On the flip side, if inflation rises or remains stubbornly high, rates may stay elevated longer.

2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate also plays a significant role in upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). And while the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their actions do reflect what’s happening in the greater economy, which can have an impact.

3. Government Policies: With the next administration set to take office in January, fiscal and monetary policies could also affect how financial markets respond and where rates go from here.

 

 

Surprisingly Good December Jobs Report

U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls Grew by 312,000; Jobless Rate Rose to 3.9%

Employers added an average of 220,000 jobs a month in 2018, the best growth since 2015

September Jobs Report, 3.7% Unemployment Rate, Lowest Since 1969

3.7% Unemployment Rate, Lowest Since 1969 - Positive For Housing
The September Jobs Report in 9 Charts

 

 
The share of the population that is in the labor force—defined as those working or actively searching for work—has hovered a bit below 63% this year. The rate has seen little sustained improvement or deterioration for the past five years. The share of the population that works was little changed last month, but has trended upward in recent years.
 
 
Participation rates are much higher for workers ages 25 to 54, where people are less likely to be out of the labor force due to retirement or education. The labor-force participation rate and employment-population ratio have both declined slightly in recent months.
 
 
 
The median spell of unemployment now lasts about nine weeks. This is much improved from the years right after the recession, but is still a few weeks longer than was typical during the strong labor markets of the late 1990s. Although job loss is now relatively rare, when it happens it can linger a bit longer than usual.
 
 
Even as the economy has improved, workers with different education levels face much different rates of unemployment. Those without a high-school degree have 5.5% unemployment while college graduates have an unemployment rate of just 2%.
 
 
Unemployment rates have trended down for workers of all races and genders in recent years. The unemployment rates for white women, black men and Hispanic women are all at the lowest in at least several decades.
 
 
With nine months down, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the stronger years of job growth since the recession.
 
 
Related Article: 

U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969 https://on.wsj.com/2Obbq68

American 6.7 Million Job Openings Now Outnumber the 6.3 Million Jobless

American Job Openings Now Outnumber the Jobless

 

U.S. job openings rose to 6.7 million at the end of April, compared with the 6.3 million Americans who were unemployed